When Truth Threatens Consensus

Years ago, I participated in a personal growth weekend where we played an exercise known as the Red/Black Game. At the time, it seemed like little more than an interesting team-building activity about cooperation, competition, and trust. Like many participants, I focused on learning the rules and how to play the game to help the group.

As the game progressed, I felt as though I was not being true to my personal convictions and, needless to say, I was one of the first to be eliminated. Looking back, I now see that the game revealed far more than a strategy for winning—it exposed enduring patterns of human behavior that continue to shape institutions, organizations, and society itself.

Independent rational thinking can threaten a group’s unity, identity, or objectives if those objectives depend more on consensus than on truth.

Many readers will recognize mathematician John Forbes Nash Jr. from the Academy Award-winning film A Beautiful Mind, which portrayed both his extraordinary genius and his lifelong struggle with mental illness. While a graduate student at Princeton University, Nash developed the concept of Nash equilibrium—the idea that people can reach a point where no one gains by changing their own strategy unless someone else changes theirs first.

Around the same time, at the RAND Corporation, mathematicians Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher developed the Prisoner’s Dilemma, which soon became a classic illustration of Nash’s theory, showing how individually rational decisions can produce outcomes that are stable but not necessarily optimal for everyone involved.

The Prisoner’s Dilemma remains a classic illustration for organizations. The theoretical foundations for these ideas were laid earlier at the RAND Corporation, a think tank established in 1948 from Project RAND (“Research ANd Development”). During the early Cold War, RAND pioneered the use of strategic games and mathematical models to study decision-making, cooperation, conflict, and human behavior under conditions of uncertainty and competing incentives.

There, mathematicians Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher developed the Prisoner’s Dilemma, introducing concepts such as cooperation versus defection, payoff matrices, and dominant strategies. They measured the tension between individual rationality and collective outcomes. These principles later influenced military strategy, economics, public policy, and leadership training worldwide. RAND initially used the model and related strategic games internally to analyze military planning. Including their Cold War strategy, negotiations, and decision-making under uncertainty.

Organizations and institutions have trained with these methods:

U.S. Air Force – Originally established to provide long-range strategic research and gaming for the Army Air Forces and later the independent Air Force.

Office of the Secretary of Defense (Department of Defense) – Strategic planning, force structure, budgeting, and defense policy. Joint Chiefs of Staff – Political-military and strategic war gaming.

U.S. Army – Strategy, tactics, logistics, operational planning, and simulations.

U.S. Navy – Naval strategy, force planning, and operational gaming.

U.S. Marine Corps – Amphibious operations, combat doctrine, and operational planning.

National Security Council and senior policymakers – Crisis simulations, deterrence, nuclear strategy, and geopolitical decision-making.

Intelligence and national security agencies – Scenario planning and strategic analysis supporting national security decisions.

Universities and military war colleges – Strategic education and professional military training.

Corporate leadership and executive education programs – Negotiation, organizational behavior, crisis management, leadership, and decision-making, often through adaptations such as the Red/Black Game.

RAND Corporation. Making a Difference: Seventy-Five Years of RAND. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024.

Jardini, David R. Out of the Blue Yonder: The RAND Corporation’s Diversification into Social Welfare Research, 1946–1968. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1996.

The progression of these early experiments produced five foundational concepts that continue to influence military strategy, economics, organizational leadership, and behavioral science:

Nash Equilibrium – Stable strategic outcomes in which no participant benefits from changing strategy unilaterally while others maintain theirs.

Incentive Alignment – Structuring rewards and consequences to encourage desired behaviors and decision-making.

Trust Through Repeated Interaction – Demonstrating how ongoing relationships can foster cooperation, reciprocity, and long-term trust.

Zero-Sum vs. Non-Zero-Sum Games – Distinguishing between situations where one participant’s gain requires another’s loss and those in which mutual benefit is possible.

Collective Action – Showing how individually rational choices can produce suboptimal outcomes for the group when participants pursue their own interests rather than the common good.

Today, variations of these strategic simulations are widely used across corporations, governments, military organizations, universities, business schools, and leadership development programs. They serve as practical tools to study negotiation dynamics, teamwork under pressure, strategic decision-making, and the balance between competition and cooperation in complex organizational systems.

Through the years, since that exercise in 1996, I watched increasingly bizarre events unfold across our culture, and I began to recognize similar patterns far beyond the classroom. I noticed people and entire groups arriving at sharply opposing conclusions while becoming ever more certain of their own positions.

The same dynamics appeared across politics, corporations, churches, media, academia, and even families, where dominant narratives increasingly diverged from what many observers believed the available evidence supported. Public debates surrounding events such as the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and the attacks of September 11, 2001, illustrate how competing interpretations of evidence can persist for decades.

The more I observed, the more I wondered whether the Red/Black Game illustrated something far deeper than strategy. It revealed enduring patterns of human behavior—how groups form consensus, how assumptions become protected, and how independent thinking can sometimes be perceived as a threat to the collective. Every belief system develops its own arguments for why it is right and why opposing views are wrong.

In such environments, agreement itself becomes the measure of loyalty, while questioning is mistaken for opposition. The pursuit of truth gives way to preserving the group’s narrative. Those who examine assumptions too closely may be seen as a greater threat than the error itself. There are several mechanisms at work.

1. Rational people ask uncomfortable questions.

A rational person understands that the burden of proof belongs to the one making the claim, not the one asking questions. Questioning is not the same as denying; it is the means by which evidence, assumptions, and conclusions are examined before they are accepted. They ask questions like:

• Is this actually true?
• What evidence supports it?
• What assumptions are we making?
• What if we’re wrong?

Those questions slow momentum, but to a rational thinker, if one foundational question cannot be answered, the remaining conclusions become suspect. A group eager to move forward may view such questions as obstacles rather than safeguards because pausing to examine assumptions feels like it delays progress and undermines confidence in the prevailing narrative.

Janis, Irving L. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. 2nd ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1982.

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2. Groups derive security from agreement.

Humans are social creatures. Throughout history, belonging to the tribe often meant survival. The desire to remain accepted and avoid exclusion became deeply woven into human behavior, often operating beneath conscious awareness. When one person disagrees, the group can unconsciously experience that dissent as:

• a challenge to authority,
• a threat to unity,
• or even a threat to everyone’s safety.

Psychologists call this normative social influence—the pressure to conform because acceptance is rewarding and rejection is costly. Individuals often adjust their opinions or outward behavior not because they are convinced they are wrong, but because the social cost of standing apart feels greater than the cost of remaining silent. Over time, the desire for belonging can become more influential than the desire to evaluate evidence independently.

Deutsch, Morton, and Harold B. Gerard. “A Study of Normative and Informational Social Influences upon Individual Judgment.” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 51, no. 3 (1955): 629–636.

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3. Rational analysis exposes weaknesses.

Many groups begin with a shared commitment to pursue truth, solve problems, or accomplish a common purpose. Over time, however, the group’s shared beliefs can become intertwined with its identity, making disagreement feel personal rather than constructive. As emotional investment grows, the focus can gradually shift from evaluating ideas on their merits to defending the group itself.

Healthy groups distinguish people from ideas.
The strongest organizations encourage respectful disagreement because testing ideas ultimately produces better decisions, deeper understanding, and greater confidence in the conclusions that remain.

Every idea has weaknesses.
No proposal, theory, or strategy is beyond examination. Rational inquiry assumes that every idea can be refined through careful questioning, honest evaluation, and a willingness to follow the evidence wherever it leads.

A careful thinker naturally looks for flaws.
Critical thinkers test assumptions, seek contrary evidence, and ask difficult questions—not to undermine the group, but to strengthen its conclusions.

That creates friction.
Honest scrutiny can be uncomfortable because it exposes weaknesses that others may have overlooked or become attached to. The greater the emotional investment in a shared belief, the more likely critical questions are to be perceived as a challenge rather than a contribution.

Shared beliefs often become part of a group’s identity.
As members become emotionally invested in a common worldview, criticism of an idea can begin to feel like criticism of the people who hold it.

Ideas become personal.
Instead of hearing, “This argument has a weakness,” people may unconsciously hear, “Our group is wrong,” or even, “You are wrong.”

Identity replaces objective evaluation.
Once identity becomes attached to a belief, the discussion shifts from examining evidence to protecting reputations, preserving unity, and defending the group’s narrative.

Nemeth, Charlan Jeanne. In Defense of Troublemakers: The Power of Dissent in Life and Business. New York: Basic Books, 2018.

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4. Groupthink rewards certainty.

Groups naturally seek confidence when facing important decisions. As members grow more cohesive, however, the desire for certainty can gradually outweigh the willingness to question assumptions or entertain competing viewpoints. Irving Janis observed that highly cohesive groups often mistake agreement for accuracy, creating an environment in which preserving confidence becomes more important than critically evaluating the evidence.

Janis found that cohesive groups often develop:

• Illusions of unanimity.
  Silence is interpreted as agreement, leading members to believe that everyone shares the same conclusions even when private doubts remain.
• Pressure on dissenters.
  Individuals who raise concerns or question prevailing assumptions may be viewed as slowing progress, disrupting unity, or lacking commitment to the group’s objectives.
• Self-censorship.
  Members frequently withhold questions or contrary opinions, not because they have changed their minds, but because they wish to avoid conflict or social disapproval.
• Overconfidence.
  As dissent diminishes, the group becomes increasingly convinced of its own correctness, often overlooking risks, alternative explanations, or unintended consequences.

The rational thinker introduces uncertainty by asking difficult questions, testing assumptions, and considering evidence that others may have overlooked. While this can feel disruptive to a group eager to move forward, such inquiry often exposes weaknesses before they become costly mistakes.

Ironically, uncertainty is exactly what good decision-making requires. Confidence is strongest when it has survived careful examination, not when it has been protected from it. Healthy organizations understand that thoughtful dissent is not the enemy of unity but one of its greatest safeguards, helping transform consensus from mere agreement into well-tested conviction.

Janis, Irving L. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. 2nd ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1982.

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5. Incentives Matter

Every group operates within a system of incentives, whether they are explicit or unspoken. Members quickly learn which behaviors are rewarded with acceptance, recognition, or advancement, and which invite criticism, isolation, or exclusion. Over time, these incentives can shape not only how people behave but also what they are willing to question.

Suppose everyone benefits if they simply agree.

• Agreement often carries immediate rewards.
  Consensus preserves harmony, avoids conflict, and allows decisions to move forward quickly. Those who support the prevailing view are often perceived as cooperative and committed to the group’s success.
• Questioning can carry immediate costs.
  The person who raises concerns may delay progress, challenge respected leaders, or expose weaknesses others would rather leave unexamined. Even when motivated by a sincere desire for truth, dissent can be perceived as disloyalty or unnecessary negativity.
• Short-term harmony may conceal long-term problems.
  The rational individual may recognize that agreement today can allow flawed assumptions, hidden risks, or unintended consequences to grow unchecked until they become far more difficult to correct.
• Groups often prioritize immediate cohesion.
  Because conflict is uncomfortable, many organizations instinctively favor preserving unity over carefully testing competing ideas. What appears to strengthen the group in the moment may ultimately weaken its decisions.
• These patterns appear in every kind of organization.
  Corporations, governments, churches, families, and voluntary associations all develop formal and informal incentives that influence what people are willing to say, question, or remain silent about.

Healthy organizations recognize that incentives shape behavior. Rather than rewarding agreement alone, they encourage honest dialogue, thoughtful disagreement, and the freedom to examine assumptions without fear of personal consequences. In the long run, organizations that reward truth over mere conformity are better equipped to recognize problems early, adapt wisely, and make sound decisions.

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

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6. The Prisoner’s Dilemma Illustrates This Tension

The Prisoner’s Dilemma demonstrates that rational decision-making is not determined solely by logic but also by the objective each participant seeks to achieve. Two people can evaluate the same situation, possess the same information, and each arrive at a rational decision, yet choose different courses of action because they define success differently. The Red/Black Game places participants in precisely this tension between individual incentives and collective outcomes.

• Every participant is making a rational calculation.
  Each player evaluates the available information and chooses the option that appears most beneficial based on their understanding of the situation.
• Rationality depends on the objective.
  The question is not simply, “What is the logical choice?” but, “Logical toward what end?” A decision that is rational for one objective may be irrational for another.
• Individual incentives can differ from collective interests.
  If my objective is to maximize my own immediate payoff, I may choose differently than if my objective is to maximize the group’s long-term success or preserve trust over repeated interactions.
• Short-term gain can produce long-term loss.
  Decisions that benefit an individual in a single round may reduce cooperation, weaken trust, and diminish outcomes for everyone over time.
• Shared objectives produce different behavior.
  When participants recognize that they are part of an ongoing relationship rather than a one-time transaction, cooperation often becomes the more rational long-term strategy.

The Prisoner’s Dilemma reveals that individual rationality and collective rationality are not always the same. The tension is not between reason and emotion but between competing definitions of success. Understanding that distinction helps explain why intelligent people often reach different conclusions while believing each is acting rationally. The lesson extends far beyond a game, offering insight into leadership, negotiations, organizations, governments, and everyday human relationships.

Axelrod, Robert. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books, 1984.

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A Biblical Perspective

Scripture consistently distinguishes between the wisdom of this world and the wisdom that comes from God. Rather than discouraging honest inquiry, the Bible repeatedly commends those who seek truth with humility, discernment, and a willingness to test what they hear against God’s Word.

Paul exhorted believers:

“Do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind…” (Romans 12:2).

The Bereans provide one of Scripture’s clearest examples of thoughtful discernment:

“…they received the word with all readiness, and searched the Scriptures daily to find out whether these things were so.” (Acts 17:11).

Paul did not rebuke their examination of his teaching. Instead, their careful testing of what they heard was presented as a noble example of faith seeking understanding rather than blind acceptance.

Likewise, Proverbs teaches:

“The simple believes every word, but the prudent considers well his steps.” (Proverbs 14:15).

From a biblical perspective, truth should strengthen genuine unity, not threaten it. Unity built upon error, assumptions, or unquestioned traditions is inherently fragile because it depends upon protecting the narrative rather than examining it. Unity grounded in truth, however, grows stronger through honest examination, correction, and humility before God.

Perhaps this is the deeper lesson illustrated by many behavioral experiments, including the Red/Black Game. The central issue is not whether people think rationally, but what ultimately governs their thinking. When preserving the group becomes the highest priority, independent reasoning can be viewed as a threat. When pursuing truth becomes the highest priority, thoughtful questioning becomes an indispensable safeguard.

Paul warned believers, ‘Beware lest any man spoil you through philosophy and vain deceit, after the tradition of men, after the rudiments of the world, and not after Christ’ (Colossians 2:8).

As Christians, we are called to walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise, redeeming the time (Ephesians 5:15-16). Genuine unity is not achieved by suppressing questions but by allowing both heart and mind to be continually renewed in the light of God’s truth.”

For the believer, our highest allegiance is never to the group, the institution, or the prevailing consensus, but to God and His Word. Every philosophy, tradition, ideology, and collective opinion must ultimately be tested against the truth of Scripture.